Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season/Humberto
09L.HUMBERTO AOI.Over Africa This one is not up on the TWO yet, but some models are picking up on this, though I think they're overly-agressive as of now (like I mentioned with the GFS on Gaby's section). From NHC: A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. That pretty much sums it up. Ryan1000 15:33, September 5, 2013 (UTC) :Up to 40% for the next 5 days. BTW, if I'm reading this correctly, and the yellows, oranges and reds indicate higher amounts of shear, then there are truckloads of wind shear scattered across the Atlantic. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:30, September 6, 2013 (UTC) :::I believe that's warmer temperatures, but there's also some shear in those areas, not all though. Ryan1000 02:59, September 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::Well, what about this? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:06, September 6, 2013 (UTC) ::::::No surprise there's lots of shear, this year sucks. See the images I posted under remnants of Gabrielle. That's how bad she (and this entire season) failed... Ryan1000 03:12, September 6, 2013 (UTC) :::::::I saw XD Do you think we'll get a hurricane at all this season? --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:23, September 6, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Unless shear settles down, no, we won't. >.> Ryan1000 03:28, September 6, 2013 (UTC) Now at 0% for two days, but 60% for 5. Interaction with 98L to the northwest will probably keep it from exploding too far, as well as some lingering dry air from the SAL off of Africa. Still, for all hopes, I want us to get something epic to track. Ryan1000 20:50, September 6, 2013 (UTC) :God, this season sucks >:( (Leeboy100 (talk) 23:15, September 6, 2013 (UTC)) ::Now on NHC's danger graphic at 10%/70%. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:31, September 7, 2013 (UTC) :::And now up further to 20%/80%. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 13:45, September 7, 2013 (UTC) ::::I think we will see Humberto from this, and hopefully 'our first hurricane... [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876]] ''T'' | 16:14, September 7, 2013 (UTC) Another tropical cyclone might be coming! Organization is showing somewhat, and a tropical depression should form in the next few days. The chances of formation in the next two days are now at 30%, whereas its chances in the next five days remain at 80%. I hope this invest can become a hurricane! AndrewTalk To Me 18:23, September 7, 2013 (UTC) This thing has the best chance of becoming a hurricane than the previous invest and storms the only problem is the lack of vertical instability is in the minus,even less than what Erin experience.Allanjeffs 18:25, September 7, 2013 (UTC) 91L.INVEST Since ex-98L is eating up all the dry air off of Africa, this one has a good chance of becoming something, but even if it does take off, it'll probably be a re-Fred (2009) and stay away from land. It may turn north enough to threaten the Azores in the long run though. Cape Verde might get a shower or two but I doubt it'll be severe for them. Now this is 91L. Oh and, as noted in Dr. Masters latest blog post, the drought in Brazil this year was responsible for 8.3 billion dollars in damage, making it Brazil's costliest natural disaster, and that drought also provided more dry air than there otherwise would be over the MDR of the Central Atlantic. That's another reason why this year has been so quiet. Though I didn't expect it to be this way worldwide as well. EPac still doesn't have a major and WPac has had only 2 official typhoons. That might go to 1977-like numbers if it holds for the rest of the season. Ryan1000 19:37, September 7, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane. Hurricane. You. Said. Hurricane. YESSSSSSSSS!!!!!!! It's TIME FOR A PARTY!!! This. Will. Pull. An. Igor. 2010. Because. It. Is. Super. Huge. Then. He. Will. Turn. Into. Humberto. Woot. PARTY TIME!!!!! I predict a Cat 4-ish from this, super strong convection and circulation from this. After y'all know, he might as well break records. HUMBERTOWILLBE THIS YEAR'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE! So let'ssss get this PARTY STARTED!!! THIS IS PINKAMENA 19:28, September 7, 2013 (UTC) 40% and 80% PARTY TIME THIS IS PINKAMENA 23:58, September 7, 2013 (UTC) Conditions are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis, and I hope Humberto pulls a Fred instead of Erin. AndrewTalk To Me 00:20, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :Sorry to burst the collective bubble, but it'll probably be a re-Erin. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:13, September 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Nooo! I don't want a re-Erin! I hope Humberto pulls a Fred instead. Seriously Atlantic, stop it with the weaklings, and produce a hurricane for ONCE! Goddd! ::^^ And Raraah up above is really excited for Humberto. She really wants to throw a party right now! But unfortunately, Humberto is doomed to be a re-Erin (according to Dylan's post) unless it intensifies rapidly. Sorry Liz, but you might be mad at this. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:01, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::It could be another Erin or Fred. I don't think 91L's going to last more than 5 days.--Isaac829 03:47, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::Up to 60% tomorrow afternoon we might start talking of td 9 or Humberto might become our first hurricane but a pretty weak one if one.cat 1 or at most cat 2.Allanjeffs 06:52, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::For the next five days, the chances of tropical cyclone formation are now at 90%. Thunderstorm activity is displaced to the system's northwest. Conditions are favorable for additional development, and watches might be required for the Cape Verdes once it develops. I am praying for a Category 1 hurricane from this system, but all that shear might just nip this system apart. AndrewTalk To Me 10:35, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::As time passes along, Invest 91L's shower and thunderstorm activity have gotten better organized. Currently located 325 miles east-southeast of the southern Cape Verde Islands, the invest is currently handling conductive environmental conditions, and a tropical depression could come upon us in the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 mph toward the Cape Verde Islands. Because of the heavy rainfall and gusty wind threats Invest 91L poses to the Verdes, anyone residing on the islands should closely monitor the invest's progress, as tropical storm watches and warnings might be mandatory for the area should it become a tropical cyclone. Based on the organization increase, the NHC (RSMC Miami) has increased Invest 91L's chances of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours to 70%, whereas the invest's chances of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days remain at 90%. If I were to make a forecast of this invest right now, I would take it to 65 knots before it is shredded by the unfavorable wind shear ahead of it. AndrewTalk To Me 11:58, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::Alright folks, here comes Humberto! I think he might ''become a hurricane. If he doesn't become a hurricane, then I will probably go furious. And Liz will get very mad at this too if it doesn't become a hurricane, cause you know, its one of her favorite names on the list.[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 15:39, September 8, 2013 (UTC) Uh, it's Pinkie Pie's favourite name, not mine! That's why Pinkie Pie is super duper excited to see a not-so iddle liddle piddle widdle twinkie pinkie shrumberto humberto!!! :D SHE SAYS ITS TIME FOR EVERYPONY TO PARTY!!! Smile smile smile, everypony smile! THIS IS PINKAMENA 16:23, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :I predict that future Humberto will peak at 40 kts. I want something strong out of this, too (heck, if it scrapes 65 kts for no more than 6 hours, I'll be pleased), but given the way this year has gone, and the shear dominating the Atlantic, I frankly don't expect much here. I'm kinda starting to accept that almost everything this year will be weak (though I still have my fingers crossed for something significant out of Karen, which is my mother's name). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 17:22, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :Should be renumber at 5 or 11pm. Its looking amazing should be upgrade at those hours,and become our first hurricane.Allanjeffs 17:38, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :Expect td 9 soon and Humberto tonight.invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al092013.ren .Allanjeffs 19:42, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :I got this feeling of this summer day Humberto formed, I crashed my car into the bridge, I watched, he let it turn, he threw my cake into a bag and pushed it down the cliff, I crashed my car into the bridge. I DON'T CARE, HE LOVES IT. I DON'T CARE. He's on a different road, I'm in the stormy eye, he wants me down in earth, but I am up in space. He's so damn hard to please, he's gotta be a cane. He's from the 2010s but I'm a 90s kid. I LOVE IT! Yes! Yes! YESSSS!!! Applause FOR HUMBERTO HE IS FINALLY HERE!!! :D This is a time where we should party (as I'm watching The X Factor ''on TV)! Who's with me here? I think he'll be this year's first hurricane, AT LEAST a Category 2! (At most a C4 like Igor.) THIS IS PINKAMENA 19:51, September 8, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nine It's officially here per NHC! 25 kts/1007 mbar as of the debut advisory. With a forecast peak of 70 kts, this is, as far as I can recall, the first storm of the year to be forecast to reach hurricane strength. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:42, September 8, 2013 (UTC) Currently at 30 mph (55 km/h)/29.74 inHg, Tropical Depression Nine has required tropical storm warnings for the Cape Verde islands of Maio, Santiago, Fogo, and Brava. It is expected to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a hurricane in 72 hours per the NHC. Finally, we could get a hurricane, though more of a Lisa (2010) than a Julia (2010). AndrewTalk To Me 20:51, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :I'm cautiously optimistic about future Humberto. I saw the NHC forecast and thought, "ok, cool, I hope that comes true!" But I'm also keeping in mind the fact that the NHC overshot the peak intensities of Dorian, Erin, and Gabrielle by 10 - 20 kts, and the fact that the tropics have been pathetic worldwide this year. It's hard not to be a little wary of a storm peaking under expectations this year, hence my earlier forecast of a 40-knot epic fail. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:25, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :Yes! We have a new depression. This will certainly become Humberto, and I have a feeling that this will peak as a Category 2 or a strong Category 1. It might also take a track similar to Julia or Lisa (both 2010). [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 21:37, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :A cat 1 or 2 is not impossible but more than that is pushing it.Dylan Wind shear has been decreasing and waters are warm so strengthening should occur at least in the next few days.Allanjeffs 21:50, September 8, 2013 (UTC) ::How do you know, Allan? The wind shear map that I've linked in a couple comments doesn't go as far east as TD 9's position. With how long and far this fail train has rolled down the tracks, I keep half-expecting this to pull a Gaston and vanish after becoming a minimal tropical storm :/ But hey, fingers crossed I'm wrong! On the other side of the spectrum, it could pull a Julia and unexpectedly bomb into a Category 4 lol. Not that I expect that to happen, but it's probably be the best-case scenario. I'm gonna revise my personal forecast upward to 60 knots - partly to account for the error in overestimating Dorian, Erin, and Gabrielle, and partly because a hurricane sounds almost too good to be true :P --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:01, September 8, 2013 (UTC) :::FWIW, if Humberto, by some miracle, deepens below 940 mbar, it will be the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Igor. If it becomes a Category 4, it will be the first since Ophelia. I wouldn't be surprised if this year makes 2 in a row without a Category 4, though. Last time that happened was the 1993 and 1994 seasons, with a gap of 1,084 days between Andrew '92 and Felix '95. It has been 707 days since Ophelia reached Category 4 strength. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:16, September 8, 2013 (UTC) I doubt this depression will go beyond Category 2 intensity (a la 1995), but the NHC never foresaw Julia going past Category 1 intensity, and you saw what happened. If, by chance, the depression pulls a Julia, I will automatically consider this system a win. AndrewTalk To Me 22:23, September 8, 2013 (UTC) : Currently I'm not expecting this to explode too much, but Julia showed us that's not impossible. It should miss Cape Verde to the south and head over the open ocean after that. BTW, if this becomes a hurricane by the 11th as NHC indicates, it'd tie 2002's Gustav for the lastest first hurricane of any Atlantic season since 1941. Ryan1000 23:35, September 8, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to 30 kts/1006 mbar. Forecast to become a hurricane around midnight UTC on the 12th. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:44, September 9, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Humberto Heeeere's Humby! Only forecast to peak as a C1 though. :( Ryan1000 11:20, September 9, 2013 (UTC) Unless Humberto pulls his 2007 predesscor, we are not seeing anything more than a weak hurricane from this. It is currently at 35 knots (40 mph/65 km/h)/1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). Gale-force winds extend 60 miles from the center. Maio and Praia, two Cape Verde islands, should receive gale-force winds soon, and rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected in the Verdes. Also, to clarify, Humberto's pronounciation is oom-BAIR-toh. AndrewTalk To Me 11:25, September 9, 2013 (UTC) : The intensity forecast is up to 90 mph now, but the GFS and Euro both see a 200 MB cyclonic outdraft in 3 days, which is typical of a major hurricane. Not saying it will become one but I hope it does, and Humby definitely could become a major. Ryan1000 13:51, September 9, 2013 (UTC) ::Up to 45 kts per ATCF. FWIW, the 11am advisory bumped Humberto up to 40 kts. I'm going to wait until the 5pm advisory is released to update the active storms header. And Ryan, only a C1? We haven't had a hurricane yet at all, so I don't see why you're complaining lol. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:21, September 9, 2013 (UTC) :::New advisory pins Humberto at 45 kts, 1002 mbar. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Cape Verde Islands has been discontinued, meaning advisories every 6 hours instead of 3. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:51, September 9, 2013 (UTC) :::::Well Dylan, I'm complaining a bit because I want Humby to become stronger than NHC indicates, like Fred of 2009 or Julia of 2010. I'd like to see a hurricane in the least, but I want to see a strong hurricane more than just a cat. 1. Oh and BTW, a cool (somewhat trivial) fact is Humberto has never been the 8th storm of a season it was used, there has always been an unnamed depression (or in the case of 2007, TS Ingrid), before it. Ryan1000 21:59, September 9, 2013 (UTC) This is a complete copy of Igor/Julia 2010. I think this guy will just explode. Literally. THIS IS PINKAMENA 22:14, September 9, 2013 (UTC) :{edit conflict) I think Humberto will peak as a Category 2, but there is an outside chance at major hurricane status. It might even pull a Julia, but I doubt it. But who knows what could happen to this thing. It is in a favorable environment, so a re-Julia isn't out of the question. Stay tuned. While we are probably looking at our first hurricane, there is a small chance we could even be looking at a future major hurricane. If Humberto does this, then I bet you Liz above will be very excited and happy at Humberto :P [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:17, September 9, 2013 (UTC) ::I would be happy if Humberto became a major hurricane, but I'll also be satisfied if it never exceeds Category 1 intensity. Better a weak hurricane than a weak TS. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:20, September 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::I think Hapy Humby could very well intensify quickly. I don't know about you guys, butthis storm looks prime to intensify quickly. Ryan1000 22:27, September 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::It has 72 more hours to strength I can see it reaching cat 2 and maybe cat 3 but more than that I doubt it.Allanjeffs 22:38, September 9, 2013 (UTC) Humberto is forecast to hit 80 knots (90 mph) per the NHC. I hope it does so tomorrow! AndrewTalk To Me 00:45, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :AL, 09, 2013091000, , BEST, 0, 138N, 257W, 50, 1000, TS Up to 60mph or 50knots whatever you prefer. If it continues to strength as it has been doing then it will be a hurricane at 5pm tomorrow.Allanjeffs 01:14, September 10, 2013 (UTC) ::50 kts/1000 mbar, and the latest forecast brings Humberto to an 85-knot Category 2 in 48 hours... crashing down to 45 kts by the end of the period due to a wallop of southwesterly shear. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:50, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::55 kts/998 mbar... slowly but surely... --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 09:32, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::Oh, and with Gabrielle's regeneration, this is the first time in 2013 that two Atlantic tropical cyclones (Gabrielle and Humberto) have simultaneously existed. I guess it's just fitting for that to happen on the climatological peak of the season. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 09:41, September 10, 2013 (UTC) Humberto is now forecast to reach 85 knots/100 mph per the NHC in 36 hours. At this rate, 2007's Humberto will remain the only 'H' storm on this list to never attain Category 2 intensity. AndrewTalk To Me 10:54, September 10, 2013 (UTC) : Now at 65 mph, and NHC lowered their peak intensity forecast also, to 90 mph again. Hopefully it gets stronger than that. Ryan1000 15:21, September 10, 2013 (UTC) ::: ALRIGHT PEOPLE! THIS PARTY HAS STARTED! PARTY PARTY PARTY!!!! Anyway... this is heading to da WEST SIDE. Forecast to be 90ph but I am expecting much higher. This should be at least a category 3. Low wind shear and warm water make the ingredients for a healthy, happy major storm. An eye is forming and is going under rapid intensification (probably.) So PARTY!!! yay 19:30, September 10, 2013 (UTC) ::::The 11 am advisory said that Humberto was undergoing something similar to an EWRC. That's probably over, since the 18z ATCF bumped Humberto up to 60 kts/993 mbar - highest winds of the season, pressure a single millibar behind Andrea, and on the cusp of hurricane strength - but still: what?! --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:22, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::The 5 pm advisory confirms the 18z ATCF intensity. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:40, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Our first hurricane of the season is almost here!! I think this will peak as a Category 2. Go, Humberto, go! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:10, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Humberto is just a tad from hurricane intensity. I expect it to do so in the next 12 hours. However, the NHC has downgraded its peak intensity to 80 knots (90 mph). Still, the 'H' hurricane curse should be broken this year. Since Hurricane Hanna in 2008, no 'H' storm has attained hurricane intensity (although Hermine '10 came close). AndrewTalk To Me 22:50, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::Humberto will be likely upgrade to hurricane at 11pm but remember that he is likely to peak at 85 to 90mph as dry air going to affect the system in the next 48 hours and then colder water and upper level winds to weaken further if not dissipating him.Allanjeffs 23:52, September 10, 2013 (UTC) :::::::He's ingesting dry air now, and he's weakened by 2 mbar since the last advisory, but I still expect a hurricane from Humberto. Ryan1000 03:23, September 11, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Humberto We've finally got ourselves a hurricane, folks! 65 kts/992 mbar as of the 5 am advisory, forecast peak lowered to 75 kts though. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 09:53, September 11, 2013 (UTC) Yippee! Humberto did it! Even if this storm starts weakening, I congratulate Humberto for stopping the weak TS streak. AndrewTalk To Me 10:21, September 11, 2013 (UTC) : Now at 80 mph, it's looking rather nice on the latest sattelite pics. Wouldn't be surprised if it can make it to cat 2. Ryan1000 15:39, September 11, 2013 (UTC) WOOOOOOOO! HUMBERTOCANE PARTY!!!!!! Just dance, wanna be ok, ta da doo doo... This might restrengthen after he om nom noms the dusty air. Julia, I just found your boyfriend. yay 20:40, September 11, 2013 (UTC) : Up to 85 our first hurricane and probably one of our fews.Cat 2 seems likely now.Allanjeffs 20:51, September 11, 2013 (UTC) ::Don't get your hopes up, Liz; Humberto's only supposed to peak at 80 kts as of now. It's not out of the question Humberto could explode, but I think calling it Julia's boyfriend is a bit much. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:43, September 11, 2013 (UTC) ::YES!!! We finally have a hurricane! Congratulations, Humberto! Now let's see if you can make it to Category 2 status. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 22:17, September 11, 2013 (UTC) ::Humberto keeps pushing it. The hurricane is now at 75 knots (85 mph/140 km/h)/986 mbar (29.12 inHg), and it is forecast to reach 80 knots (90 mph). As much as I want a major hurricane right now, I also want to consider Humberto is about to smash into a high pressure system. However, some models forecast Humberto's persistence for several more days (a la Ivan (1998)). Also, for comparison, Humberto is 5 knots (5 mph) and 1 mbar weaker than its 2007 predesscor. AndrewTalk To Me 02:01, September 12, 2013 (UTC) :::Maximum winds are the same with the 11 pm advisory, but the pressure has dropped to 982 mbar, putting Humberto just ahead of its 2007 predecessor. Weakening is forecast from hereon out :( "IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO MAY BE AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY." --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:53, September 12, 2013 (UTC) :::May make it to high end cat 1 or low cat 2 but nothing more of this system just to live a little bit more.Allanjeffs 04:07, September 12, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah I think 85 (maybe 90) mph will be it's peak. Not completely out of the question it could hit cat 2 or 3, but as of now, I doubt that will happen. Ryan1000 04:34, September 12, 2013 (UTC) NNNNNAAADDDDIIIINNNNNEEEE yay 19:08, September 12, 2013 (UTC) HE CAME IN LIKE A WRECKING BALL, HE NEVER HIT SO HARD A 'CANE, ALL HE EVER WANTED WAS TO BEND THE LINE, ALL HE EVER DID WAS, WRECK ME. Haaah, not really. BUT THIS CALLS FOR EXTREME MEASURES. Guess what, party animals? You won't be going to bed any sooner! Fresh from the officials, bro (and I added some funny bits!) Get your Prada shades on, cuz he's gonna shut da club down! "LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE AND TAKE A GOOD NAP. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHANIQUA SHA'QUAYBERTO HUMBERTO, THE ATLANTIC'S RESIDENT PARTY ANIMAL, COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE AT DAYS 4-5." Lol, you can see what I modified! Lol! Woooooooooo!!!!!! Hereeee's nadine!! yay 21:44, September 12, 2013 (UTC) INNIT MAN 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH yay 21:49, September 12, 2013 (UTC) : No, we won't see a re-Nadine from this. Remember how Nadine wandered around the Azores and became one of the longest-lived hurricanes on record? Humberto isn't going to do that. Anyway, Humberto should start weakening from here on out, and expect it to die in a week or so. Unfortunately it didn't become a Category 2. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:06, September 12, 2013 (UTC) Dude, look at where it says '60mph!' THIS IS A BLOODY MONSTER AAAOOOOOOOOHHHH yay 23:53, September 12, 2013 (UTC) Humberto will not die! It shall live long and prosper! However, I am surprised by the NHC's reintenification forecast at 120 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 01:45, September 13, 2013 (UTC) : I'm surprised at that too, I'd be even more surprised if it lasts for another week in the open Atlantic. Ryan1000 01:56, September 13, 2013 (UTC) ::Down to 65 kts/984 mbar :/ --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 10:45, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :The NHC is acting extremely weird on Humberto. They weaken the hurricane to 40 knots, and then expect it to hit 55 knots again. How weird... AndrewTalk To Me 11:02, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :Actually is not,Humberto is expect to find extremely favorable conditions in 4 days base on the models even so half of them make him a major hurricane so things may look interesting.Allanjeffs 12:13, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :::Michael 2.0? Lol. I have doubts that will happen, but Humberto might not die out so soon after all... Ryan1000 15:15, September 13, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Humberto (2nd time) And btw, down to TS strength again. Ryan1000 15:39, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :Whoa, it's down to 45 kts/996 mbar. I didn't expect Humberto to weaken so quickly. The official NHC forecast keeps Humberto at minimal tropical storm strength for a few days and still restrengthens it into a hurricane at the end, but at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Humby dies tomorrow. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:28, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :"DIES?" "DIES?" you said "DIES?" NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO WHAT AM I GONNA DO :( ALL THE PONIES ARE CRYING NOW I WANT THIS STORM TO LIVE ON WAAAAAAAAAAAAA someone gimme a bunny rabbit :( I HATE WIND SHEAR!!!! HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 22:01, September 13, 2013 (UTC) ::Be glad it became a hurricane; the first of the season, no less. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 22:03, September 13, 2013 (UTC) ::fluffy kitty invasion for you i want this to live on still the ace is rubbish HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 22:04, September 13, 2013 (UTC) :::Yeah, the ACE this year sucks. I wouldn't be surprised if Humberto dies tomorrow or Sunday at the rate it's weakening, but if it dies, then it will probably regenerate later. Well, hey Liz, there is a chance that it will survive the wind shear, and in a week, it might restrengthen to as strong as a Category 2 due to favorable conditions. So don't get mad and give up on Humby just yet, and in fact, a re-Nadine ain't out of the question. Humberto shall live long and prosper!!! :D [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:12, September 13, 2013 (UTC) YESSS THANKS STEVE so... What did the fox say? RING NING NING NING RING RING WOOOO GO HUMBERTO LET'S HAVE A PARTY MY BUDDY what about 2 weeks in the Atlantic. HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 23:23, September 13, 2013 (UTC) : Both the GFS and the Euro keep Humby alive for another week, but neither reintensifies it past it's former self. However, Humby won't die out just yet. It still has some time left. Ryan1000 01:36, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::40 kts/999 mbar, and NHC is now expecting Humberto to die tomorrow, only to regenerate by Monday. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:08, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::Wow, Humberto looks shredded. Never expected it to die down so fast. Ryan1000 06:02, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::Humberto has just collapsed. It is at 35 knots (40 mph/65 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) per the most recent NHC advisory, and it should degenerate later today. However, the NHC expects Humberto to rise from the dead in 72 hours and become a 65 knot (75 mph) Category 1 hurricane again, a la Dorian and Gabrielle. AndrewTalk To Me 11:06, September 14, 2013 (UTC) :::::Bye for now, Humby! AL, 09, 2013091412, , BEST, 0, 252N, 348W, 35, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 120, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, S, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 12:53, September 14, 2013 (UTC) LOLWUT. HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 13:15, September 14, 2013 (UTC) : Don't worry Liz, Humby should regenerate in a few days, and possible even re-strengthen to hurricane status. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 15:08, September 14, 2013 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto NHC has confirmed the ATCF information from above. Advisories are being discontinued at this time; I was curious about whether or not they would be continued, based on the expected regeneration of Humberto by about Monday. The last time both dissipation and regeneration were predicted in the same forecast was, I believe, Colin from 2010, though I could be wrong. If Humberto regenerates - and it likely will - it will be the third ATL storm this season to come back from the dead, after Dorian and Gabrielle. I wonder if that's going to be a pattern this year. Coincidentally, another season that used this list, 2001, also had several storms that dissipated and regenerated: Chantal, Dean, Erin, and Felix. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 15:45, September 14, 2013 (UTC) :50%/70% on the TWO. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:28, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::HOLY CRAPAMOLEY :O HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 19:30, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::Map... :::: Humberto will come again. #yolo ::::Humberto sad. ::::Humberto becoming happy again. ::::Humberto is best pony hurricane. :::: HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 20:08, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::I can not wait for Humberto to come back! It is in prime conditions to do so. AndrewTalk To Me 22:52, September 14, 2013 (UTC) ::::::LOL, I sooooooo agree! In Humberto's mind, "YOLO" is sooooo last year!! He's going by "YDOLO." ::::::Humberto: "YOLO really? Don't know about you, but I'm going to live again. YOLO" Oh really? HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 22:54, September 14, 2013 (UTC) (←)Humberto's remnants, located 950 miles southwest of the Azores, have begun redeveloping shower and thunderstorm activity near the center. We could see it coming back to life later today. For the next two days, Humberto has a 70% chance of returning, and a 90% chance in the next five days. (To Humberto: Live long and prosper, Humberto! As they taught you in hurricane school, becoming a '''hurricane' over the Atlantic will help you stay sane. Keep calm and swirl on!) AndrewTalk To Me 12:01, September 15, 2013 (UTC) Humberto is about to come back to life! Yes! Live long and prosper Humberto, and don't let shear and cooler waters let you down. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] [[Message Wall:Steven09876 #top|''T]] | 15:05, September 15, 2013 (UTC) It's up to 80%. Here comes a re-born Humby! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:08, September 16, 2013 (UTC) (edit conflict) Enviornmental conditions are improving for Humberto. Currently located 1,100 miles southwest of the Azores, it could come back anytime soon. AndrewTalk To Me 00:13, September 16, 2013 (UTC) : I'd be surprised if Humby doesn't return, but I think by now it will miss the Azores if it does come back later on. Ryan1000 01:53, September 16, 2013 (UTC) : Someone wants to say hi.AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,Allanjeffs 14:42, September 16, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Humberto (3rd time) Aaaaaand Humby has been resurrected as a minimal tropical storm! 35 kts, 1007 mbar. Forecast to regain minimal hurricane strength near the end of the forecast period before losing tropical characteristics a day later. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 18:44, September 16, 2013 (UTC) : Gotta say, I'm impressed Humby persisted this long. Shame it only peaked as a C1. :( I was hoping for our first major out of Humberto. Ryan1000 18:50, September 16, 2013 (UTC) : Yes Humberto might not be our first major.Right now there is too much shear and dry air.may peak at 70mph but once shear relax it might be too late.might be becoming extratropical.With Humberto only expect to reach cat 1 again and Ingrid dying so far our hurricanes have been cat 1 max.Sep and Oct might bring our only major or 2.Allanjeffs 19:00, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::: We have only 6 weeks to see a one or two majors, let's cross our fingers we see at least one and that it doesn't affect land. The season is still far from over, and as last year and 1998 showed us, we might not see our season's ultimate storm until the very end. Ryan1000 19:37, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::: Lol very end no as there was nicole to close the season,but Mitch was a beast I don`t remember much though I was only 3 when my birthday came almost no one went because everything was so destroy.I believe that cape verde season is almost over if not over we might see another name storm and that is it. now if you see Africa is lacking waves and the ones that left the sea they desintegrate with all the dry air and wind shear.If a major comes if will likely be near the bahamas,caribbean or gulf of Mexico.Allanjeffs 19:49, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Well, technically not "very end", but the end of the strongest activity of the season (late October), as most Novembers aren't very active, a few exceptional years like 2008 or 1999 have had majors in the month though. I agree that the heart of the Atlantic might not see any more significant storms for the remainder of the season, but that doesn't mean we can't get anything severe in the GoM, Western Carib, ect in October. The remaining waves that cross Africa will probably either develop in the Caribbean, GoM, or EPac, I'd be surprised if we get anything significant and long-lasting in the heart of the open Atlantic from here on out. Ryan1000 20:26, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::: Models are predicting a scary Karen in the US EAST COAST?!?! :O MODELS PREDICT HUMBERTO WILL REACH IRELAND?!?! HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 20:32, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::If that does happen, Humberto will probably be post-tropical by then. Anyway, it's up to 40 kts/1003 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 20:45, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Humberto is back! The NHC predicts it to restrengthen to a Category 1 before being gone for good, and its extratropical remnants could affect Iceland in the long run. And I hope future Karen doesn't cause loads of devastation if it strikes the east coast. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 21:26, September 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::I hope Humberto can become a hurricane. AndrewTalk To Me 00:55, September 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Bad news, everyone. Humberto weakened a bit to 35 kts/1005 mbar with the latest advisory. It's no longer forecast to regain hurricane strength :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:39, September 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Humberto's pressure has further dropped to 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Even though it now only may hit 45 knots (50 mph), all that matters to me is that Humberto came back from the dead and became a tropical storm again. AndrewTalk To Me 11:14, September 17, 2013 (UTC) :::::::::Center has reformed to the north as per NHC. Again, not terribly surprised as this was evident even yesterday (compare yesterday's presentation http://horsesnhurricanes.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/hum16.jpg to the current visible image, the LLC was weakening and convection to the north was beginning to curve around) but of course that seems to only add to the system's indication of weakness. Ah well, Humberto, you tried, and fought valiantly! TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 16:34, September 17, 2013 (UTC) Humberto looks like it's starting to take on subtropical characteristics. From here on out, Humberto will continue to accelerate to the north, and it should die out in about two days. Ryan1000 23:59, September 17, 2013 (UTC) :Humberto should start weakening and turning subtropical from here on out. Well Humberto, you fought long and hard, and you tried. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:05, September 18, 2013 (UTC) :::It's taking a slight jog west of due north, but despite increasing shear, Humberto has managed to keep TS intensity today. It might last a little longer than earlier anticipated. Ryan1000 14:24, September 18, 2013 (UTC) :::Humberto could still live a little longer. Despite weakening to 35 knots (40 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg), it is forecast to reach 40 knots (45 mph) again and last another 48 hours as a tropical cyclone. AndrewTalk To Me 22:21, September 18, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Humberto 30 kts/1009 mbar. Humberto was a bust in its second life, but at least it had one to begin with, and became the season's first hurricane during its first run. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:56, September 19, 2013 (UTC) : Yeah, Humberto was a bust in its second life, but at least it became the season's first hurricane in its first life. Anyway, Humby should die tomorrow. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:56, September 19, 2013 (UTC) ::So much for regenerating into a hurricane, eh? AL, 09, 2013091918, , BEST, 0, 330N, 425W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, S, --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:02, September 19, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Humberto After 38 advisories, Humberto has passed away for at least six more years. Farewell! The system is now a trough, and will be swept into a larger system shortly. AndrewTalk To Me 21:55, September 19, 2013 (UTC) : Bye, Humberto. It was fun tracking you. Humberto shall not come again until 2019. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:56, September 20, 2013 (UTC) WHAT DOES HUMBERTO SAY?!? Ring-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding! Gering-ding-ding-ding-dingeringeding! ''Ugh, WHEN EXACTLY IS the most epic storm of the 2013 AHS's TCR coming out?!?! The officials seem oblivious of King Humberto lol. The 2013 FAILAHS was a complete bust, it'll be a bust, be a bust in the hall of fame, tra la la la lalalalalalatrololololo ugggggh. Guys, when do you think? “i liek turtlez 22:33, December 12, 2013 (UTC) ::Liz, hopefully soon. AndrewTalk To Me 12:09, December 13, 2013 (UTC) :::I also can't wait for Humberto's TCR to come out. Hopefully it will be soon... —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ''' 05:51, December 16, 2013 (UTC) It did. He almost peaked at cat 2. No worries, Arthur and Cristobal will give him a lesson on how to strengthen up in 2019. “i liek turtlez 16:51, August 29, 2014 (UTC)